Three ways this war could escalate and drag Nato in

Nato ministers have been meeting in Brussels this past week to discuss how far they should go in providing military equipment to Ukraine.

The challenge for Nato throughout this war has been how to give its ally Ukraine enough military support to defend itself without getting drawn into the conflict and finding itself at war with Russia.

The Ukrainian government has been explicit in its calls for help.

If it is to have any chance of fending off the coming Russian assault on the Donbas region in the east of the country, it says, then it urgently needs a resupply of the West’s Javelin, NLAW (next-generation light anti-tank weapon), Stinger and Starstreak anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles that its forces have already been using to such effect in this war.

That much is coming. But Ukraine wants more.

It wants tanks, warplanes, drones and advanced missile air defence systems to counter Russia’s increasing use of air strikes and long-range missiles that are steadily depleting Ukraine’s strategic stores of fuel and other essentials.

So what exactly, many people may ask, is holding Nato back?

The answer is escalation.

The risk of Russia resorting to using tactical (ie short range) nuclear weapons or of the conflict spreading beyond Ukraine’s borders into a wider European war is constantly in the backs of western leaders’ minds and here the stakes are dangerously high.

What West has given so far

• over 30 countries have provided military aid to Ukraine including €1bn (£800m) from EU and $1.7bn (£1.3bn) from US
• supplies so far limited to arms, ammunition, and defensive equipment like anti-tank and anti-aircraft missile systems
• they include Javelins which are shoulder-held anti-tank weapons that shoot heat-seeking rockets
• and Stingers which are man-portable anti-aircraft weapons most famously used in Afghanistan against Soviet aircraft
• the Starstreak is a UK-made portable air defence system
• Nato members fear supplying heavier offensive equipment like tanks and fighter jets could lead to direct open conflict with Russia
• That hasn’t prevented the Czechs from giving T72 tanks

President Putin reminded the world early on in this war that Russia is a nuclear weapons power and that he was moving its strategic nuclear deterrent up to a higher degree of readiness.

The US did not follow suit as it detected no movement of Russian nuclear warheads out of their secure storage bunkers. But Putin’s point was made. He was effectively saying: “Russia has a massive nuclear arsenal so don’t think you can push us around.”

Russian military doctrine allows for the early use of low-yield, tactical nuclear warheads on the battlefield, knowing that the West has an abhorrence for nuclear weapons that have not been used in anger for 77 years.

Nato strategic planners worry that once the nuclear taboo is broken, even if the damage is limited to a localised target on the Ukrainian battlefield, then the risk of escalation to a catastrophic nuclear exchange between Russia and the West inevitably goes up a notch.