Bawumia Trails All Four Leading NDC Candidates in 2028 Projections

Pollster and Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, has revealed that current polling data shows Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia losing against all four leading candidates within the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) in hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups.

According to polling data released by Global InfoAnalytics in September 2025, Dr. Bawumia trails Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu, Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, NDC National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia, and Chief of Staff Julius Debrah in head to head electoral scenarios.

The data shows Haruna Iddrisu leading Dr. Bawumia 55 percent to 42 percent, with three percent preferring another candidate. In swing regions, Iddrisu’s advantage widens significantly to 63 percent against Dr. Bawumia’s 35 percent.

Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson performs similarly strong against the former Vice President, leading 53 percent to 44 percent among general voters and 65 percent to 33 percent in swing regions. Johnson Asiedu Nketia holds a narrower but clear lead at 50 percent to 45 percent nationally, expanding to 61 percent against 36 percent in battleground areas.

Even Julius Debrah, who polls lowest among the four NDC frontrunners in internal party preference surveys, leads Dr. Bawumia 46 percent to 50 percent nationally, though this represents Dr. Bawumia’s only competitive showing among the matchups. However, in swing regions, Debrah extends his advantage to 58 percent against Dr. Bawumia’s 39 percent.

The findings suggest that Dr. Bawumia’s path to victory in 2028 faces significant challenges regardless of which candidate the NDC selects, with all four leading contenders currently outperforming him in voter preference polls. The data reflects voter sentiment as of September 2025, when the polls were conducted across all 16 regions.

When tested against Kennedy Agyapong, who is Dr. Bawumia’s main challenger in the NPP’s January 31, 2026 flagbearer race, the results show mixed outcomes. Agyapong loses to all four NDC candidates but performs more competitively in certain matchups, particularly against Julius Debrah, whom he defeats 49 percent to 46 percent nationally.

Against Haruna Iddrisu, Agyapong trails 55 percent to 41 percent, while Dr. Ato Forson leads him 54 percent to 42 percent. Asiedu Nketia holds a 51 percent to 44 percent advantage over Agyapong. The swing region data shows similar patterns, with all four NDC candidates maintaining comfortable leads over Agyapong.

The polling data has generated controversy within political circles, with some NDC figures expressing concern that premature succession polling could distract from governance priorities. Ghana’s Ambassador to the United States, Victor Smith, cautioned senior NDC figures in September 2025 against prematurely positioning themselves as President John Dramani Mahama’s successors.

“It’s normal for them, maybe they are trying to prepare the ground for themselves, I don’t know. I personally think that talks about preparing to replace John Mahama is too early because we haven’t even done one year since coming to office,” Smith stated during an appearance on Channel One TV on September 23.

However, Dankwah has defended his organization’s decision to conduct early presidential polling, arguing that the conversation was driven by the Ghanaian public rather than pollsters. He emphasized that President Mahama’s constitutional limitation to a single term creates unique circumstances prompting public interest in succession planning.

“I don’t have a problem. Ghanaians are talking, and rightly so,” Dankwah insisted during an October appearance on Citi FM’s Point Blank. “We are in a unique circumstance, especially when it comes to the NDC. You didn’t see this under previous governments because the president was going for a second term. But now, John Mahama is going for just one term, and indeed, people, without being prompted, have already started their moves.”

Within the NDC, recent polling shows significant shifts in the succession race. A December 31, 2025 poll indicated that Dr. Ato Forson has overtaken NDC Chairman Asiedu Nketia to claim second position behind Haruna Iddrisu among general voters. Dankwah attributed Forson’s rise to public confidence in his economic management and the improving economic indicators under the current administration.

“Buoyed by the economy, the poll suggests Ato Forson may have the momentum to lead the party at least judging by general voters’ preferences,” Dankwah noted. The latest poll places Iddrisu at 30 percent, Forson at 24 percent moving up from 18 percent in October, and Asiedu Nketia at 22 percent slipping from second position.

Among NPP voters surveyed about their preferences for NDC leadership, Haruna Iddrisu receives the highest support at 42 percent, followed by Asiedu Nketia at 16 percent. Dankwah explained that NPP voters prefer opponents they perceive as easier to defeat, potentially explaining why their preferences differ from those of NDC supporters and floating voters.

The pollster has faced scrutiny over his methodology, particularly regarding sample sizes and timing of surveys. An October 2025 report raised questions about Global InfoAnalytics claiming to have surveyed 16,997 respondents in three months alone, prompting calls for the Ghana Statistical Service to establish clearer standards and oversight mechanisms for political polling institutions.

Despite the criticism, Dankwah maintains that his organization’s polls are based on facts and data rather than personal preferences or political bias. “As far as we are concerned we believe in data. Sometimes I do a poll and I don’t feel well about it but that is not my view, that is the view of the people,” he stated in August 2025.

The NPP will hold its flagbearer election on January 31, 2026, with Dr. Bawumia widely favored to defeat Kennedy Agyapong and other challengers. Recent Global InfoAnalytics polling shows Dr. Bawumia leading with 56 percent support among all voters, far ahead of Agyapong at 28 percent. Among NPP core voters, support for Dr. Bawumia reaches 72 percent.

However, the head to head matchup data suggests that winning the NPP nomination may not translate into electoral success in 2028, particularly if economic conditions do not improve significantly or if the NDC effectively consolidates around a single candidate with broad appeal.

Dankwah has stated that the NDC stands in a very strong position to win the 2028 general election, warning that only a “big mess” could cost the party victory. “It will take a big mess from the NDC to lose the election. I mean, there’s more than 80 percent chance for NDC to win the election,” he said on Joy Prime’s Prime Insight in September.

The 2028 election remains nearly three years away, and political dynamics can shift dramatically during that period based on economic performance, policy implementation, scandals, and unforeseen events. The polling data provides an early snapshot of voter sentiment but should not be interpreted as predictive of final outcomes.